Nations of the Middle East & North Africa region (MENA) should expect a wave of paper packaging imports in 2020, according to the Middle East & North Africa Paper Packaging Outlook, a new Special Study from Fastmarkets RISI. European producers have historically increased exports to the region during periods of weak demand in Europe.
Fastmarkets RISI forecasts that MENA’s 2020 recycled linerboard imports will jump 25% from 2019’s total. During prior periods of weaker European paper packaging demand in 2012 and 2016, these imports spiked nearly 76% and 48% year-over-year, respectively.
“Overall, the nations of the Middle East and North Africa are a bright spot for paper packaging growth, compared to global averages,” explained Fastmarkets RISI Economist Abdulla Zaid, lead author of the new study. “Over the past decade, MENA’s overall paper packaging demand rose by an annual average of 3.8%, as capacity grew at a 4.9% rate.”
Global leaders including IP, Mondi and Tetra Pak have stepped up investments in MENA production capacity. Imports’ share of overall MENA demand has steadily declined from 61.4% in 2008 to51.5% in 2018.
“Demographic trends point towards ongoing increases in containerboard and boxboard consumption,” explained Zaid. “IP’s recent purchase of a corrugated box plant in Morocco, for example, demonstrates the industry’s confidence in future demand growth from the MENA region.”